Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part I Random transport and general models     

V. Resseguier  E. Mémin  B. Chapron 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2017,111(3):149-176

A stochastic flow representation is considered with the Eulerian velocity decomposed between a smooth large scale component and a rough small-scale turbulent component. The latter is specified as a random field uncorrelated in time. Subsequently, the material derivative is modified and leads to a stochastic version of the material derivative to include a drift correction, an inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion, and a multiplicative noise. As derived, this stochastic transport exhibits a remarkable energy conservation property for any realizations. As demonstrated, this pivotal operator further provides elegant means to derive stochastic formulations of classical representations of geophysical flow dynamics.  相似文献   

Coral assemblages and reef growth in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (Western Pacific Ocean)     

Peter Houk  Robert Van Woesik 《Marine Ecology》2010,31(2):318-329

Reef development varies considerably around the high, raised‐limestone islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Here we examine the modern assemblages at 30 sites for coral composition, colony density, colony size, and fidelity. We defined four reef types and hypothesize the presence of environmentally driven ecological stasis, whereby the environment continuously selects for coral species membership, defines colony sizes, and over time creates the noted reef types. Our results show that constructional spur‐and‐groove reefs supported significantly larger coral‐colony sizes and higher coral species richness compared with high‐relief interstitial framework, low‐relief incipient, and non‐constructional coral assemblages. Non‐constructional reefs supported much smaller coral colony sizes, despite similar population densities, and were consistently found in association with high wave exposure. The distinct coral assemblages found on interstitial framework and low‐relief incipient reefs were not affiliated with any wave exposure regime, but were located adjacent to large watersheds and on islands with unique geological history. These assemblages were nested within the spur‐and‐groove species pool. Overall, modern coral cover was well predicted by bathymetric slope and watershed size, while species richness was additively influenced by two proxies of pollution, suggesting the latter is better suited for establishing management targets. In contrast with previous studies that suggested modern assemblages were biologically controlled in the CNMI, we show reef assemblages and reef development are highly influenced by long‐term environmental forcing.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past,present and future climates     

K. Mills  P. Gell  P. P. Hesse  R. Jones  P. Kershaw  R. Drysdale 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):547-560

This paper provides an incisive review of paleoclimate science and its relevance to natural-resource management within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The drought of 1997–2010 focussed scientific, public and media attention on intrinsic climate variability and the confounding effect of human activity, especially in terms of water-resource management. Many policy and research reviews make statements about future planning with little consideration of climate change and without useful actionable knowledge. In order to understand future climate changes, modellers need, and demand, better paleoclimate data to constrain their model projections. Here, we present an insight into a number of existing long-term paleoclimate studies relevant to the MDB. Past records of climate, in response to orbital forcing (glacial–interglacial cycles) are found within, and immediately outside, the MDB. High-resolution temperature records, spanning the last 10⁵ years, exist from floodplains and cave speleothems, as well as evidence from lakes and their associated lunettes. More recently, historical climate records show major changes in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles and decadal shifts in rainfall regimes. A considerable body of research currently exists on the past climates of southeastern Australia but, this has not been collated and validated over large spatial scales. It is clear that a number of knowledge gaps still exist, and there is a pressing need for the establishment of new paleoclimatic research within the MDB catchment and within adjacent, sensitive catchments if past climate science is to fulfil its potential to provide policy-relevant information to natural-resource management into the future.  相似文献   

Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream     

Richard C. Chiverrell  Ian M. Thrasher  Geoffrey S. P. Thomas  Andreas Lang  James D. Scourse  Katrien J. J. van Landeghem  Danny Mccarroll  Chris D. Clark  Colm Ó Cofaigh  David J. A. Evans  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):200-209

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1D elastic full‐waveform inversion and uncertainty estimation by means of a hybrid genetic algorithm–Gibbs sampler approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mattia Aleardi  Alfredo Mazzotti 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(1):64-85

Stochastic optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms, search for the global minimum of the misfit function within a given parameter range and do not require any calculation of the gradients of the misfit surfaces. More importantly, these methods collect a series of models and associated likelihoods that can be used to estimate the posterior probability distribution. However, because genetic algorithms are not a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the direct use of the genetic‐algorithm‐sampled models and their associated likelihoods produce a biased estimation of the posterior probability distribution. In contrast, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis–Hastings and Gibbs sampler, provide accurate posterior probability distributions but at considerable computational cost. In this paper, we use a hybrid method that combines the speed of a genetic algorithm to find an optimal solution and the accuracy of a Gibbs sampler to obtain a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions. First, we test this method on an analytical function and show that the genetic algorithm method cannot recover the true probability distributions and that it tends to underestimate the true uncertainties. Conversely, combining the genetic algorithm optimization with a Gibbs sampler step enables us to recover the true posterior probability distributions. Then, we demonstrate the applicability of this hybrid method by performing one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversions on synthetic and field data. We also discuss how an appropriate genetic algorithm implementation is essential to attenuate the “genetic drift” effect and to maximize the exploration of the model space. In fact, a wide and efficient exploration of the model space is important not only to avoid entrapment in local minima during the genetic algorithm optimization but also to ensure a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions in the subsequent Gibbs sampler step.  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度     

张华  王菲  赵树云  谢冰 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):691-698

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献   

三组火山强迫资料差异及其对模式模拟结果的影响     

高雅  高超超 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(3):305-316

Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。  相似文献   

A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System     

Zhizhen XU  Jing CHEN  Mu MU  Guokun DAI  Yanan MA 《大气科学进展》2022,39(9):1432-1450

How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts. In this study, a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System (GRAPES) Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System (CAEPS). The nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach, that is, conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation-forcing (CNOP-F), is applied in this study, to construct a nonlinear model perturbation method for GRAPES-CAEPS. Three experiments are performed: One of them is the CTL experiment, without adding any model perturbation; the other two are NFSV-perturbed experiments, which are perturbed by NFSV with two different groups of constraint radii to test the sensitivity of the perturbation magnitude constraint. Verification results show that the NFSV-perturbed experiments achieve an overall improvement and produce more skillful forecasts compared to the CTL experiment, which indicates that the nonlinear NFSV-perturbed method can be used as an effective model perturbation method for convection-scale ensemble forecasts. Additionally, the NFSV-L experiment with large perturbation constraints generally performs better than the NFSV-S experiment with small perturbation constraints in the verification for upper-air and surface weather variables. But for precipitation verification, the NFSV-S experiment performs better in forecasts for light precipitation, and the NFSV-L experiment performs better in forecasts for heavier precipitation, indicating that for different precipitation events, the perturbation magnitude constraint must be carefully selected. All the findings above lay a foundation for the design of nonlinear model perturbation methods for future CAEPSs.  相似文献   

一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱敬海  潘杰丽 《海洋预报》2007,24(1):69-74

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。  相似文献   

Wind-induced eddy motion in the lower St. Lawrence Estuary     

G. Mertz  V.G. Koutitonsky  Y. Gratton  M.I. El-Sabh 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1992,34(6)

  相似文献